Dissidentpress

September 4, 2006

Euro Floats in Oil

Filed under: Economics, International Economics — jensn @ 7:59 pm

Three Steps Forwards Two

Backwards

Petroeuro In The World Economy,

And What We Really Need

“So-called hard euro is lighter than oil, that is the reason why it floats” 

  

Contents

From monetary system via dollar-dominans to floating nominal currencies.

The domain of dollar extends.

The dollar seceded from the gold Petrodollars IMF – debt-crises. How USA dealt with its debts-increase.

The US-world-reserve-role changing Japan in debitor’s trap.

Euro and European Union Euro and its primery objectives.

Fear of competition narrows the rationality.

Euro-Union and globalization.

Two suppliers of internaitonal monetary means.

The need for introduction of real currency rates.

Recommend this file 

From monetary system via dollar dominans to floating nominal currency rates: The international system of payments after WW2 that USA and Britain actual decided, while the war was going on, in 1944 in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA, tranformed the dollar to a so-called reserve currency; most of the worldtrade was agreed upon in dollars. Central banks all over the world kept a considerable reserve amount of dollars in order to be able to protect the national currency when too much imbalance in foreign trade occurred, and other currencies were expected to be measured secured in terms of the dollarvalue. The value of dollar was connected directly to the goldprice, $35 per ounce fine gold. The dollar dominans in the world trade alone implied even larger dollar reserves in the central banks all over the world. The Marshall Plan after the war secured the rebuilding of Europe; but it actually did not cost USA a cent, because the dollars (-bills) obviously are much cheaper to provide than other goods and services. When dollars returned by the accounting for goods and services in USA they made trade impacts on the American economy, otherwise they did not. But almost none of them returned. At the same time USA could import almost unlimited and pay with more dollars that did not return either. Large amounts of dollars that piled up for example in consequence of the positive result of the balances of trade were invested in interest-bearing and currency secured American government bonds and other assets. With this system the leading economic power was tempted to accept large deficits on balance of trade equalized by missuse of the means of payment via this issuing of money. The result was that US received the foreign goods for free. This arrangement simply could not continue in the long run or could it? Without going into details, inflation and state-debt was introduced as an obvious possebility among the professional politicians, who did not worry particularily about nation and tradition, and certainly did not know the hard conditions. Devaluations on behalf of the nation, and the initiatives of the state itself were also included in this dismantling, and devaluations in cooperation with IMF came like af thief in the night in a row of cases, because the really needed of necessity had to be done in time to prevent this vicious spiral to continue in the nations: Finance crisis upon finance crisis around the globe.It was certainly not new phenomenons that were introduced by the Bretton Woods System. At the peace conference, the Wienna Congress in 1815 and the bankructcy of Denmark 1813 followed a devaluation of 90%. The collapsed monetary system from 1944 that has not yet been replaced by a new one actually had some bad temptation for the politicians built in depending on the character of the leading figures. Of other decicing impacts in the long run the following have to be mentioned:

  • Dollar and petrodollar dominans in international trade with artificial values at home and abroad – totally independent ofthe real domestic economy
  • Competing European euro-system based upon an official approved politician-phantacy on the former German stability and growth, now among indebted nations with adjustment turned downwards via wage rates and minimum standards of ecology and of social level.
  • The way to real economic recovery of Europe was prevented, in addition the unlimitation of the markets was encouraged without any self-regulating mechanism of competition directed out of the euro-zone, and combined with a clossusish lack of competition in the other markets except for the market for disguised subsidies to a too expensive structure
  • Indebted nations around the globe after two generations     
  • An explosion of the amount of means of payment and speculation that would not be possible without the built in defects originating the from birth of the Bretton Woods System, to such a degree that the real economies in the nations are totally secluded from the system of international payments, that they were meant to protect in order to protect the nation

The domain of the dollar extends: On the other hand the arrangement was binding for USA, externally, in the world of realities characterized by practical rebuilding of production-capacity, markets and defending efforts under the Cold War. And the rest of the world could redeem dollars at the goldsprice as required, granted that USA as an economic superpower was able to secure the dollar-value settled in gold. USA was the only country to guarantee and carry out the redemption of dollars for gold as it had the largest gold-reserves. Western Europa quickly recovered, and the growth lead to large European export surpluses that at the same time created an dollar-accummulation in the export countries. As early as in the 1960s France began to redeem dollars for gold, and others followed. At same time USA was engaged in the Vietnam War and elsewhere. This brought the deficits on the public finances in an uninflated heavenward flight of the time. In 1967 the drain of the gold-reserves in USA and Bank of in England in Britain to a critical point. That France and other Eruopean countries definitely according to the agreement increased the redemtion of dollars for gold brought the dollar under pressure, given that the goldprice measured in dollars continuing was kept unchanged. It was expected that USA would devaluate the price of the dollar in relatively to gold with a continuous bigger and bigger pressure from the demand for gold, and also from USA’s deficit on the balance of trade plus the still unfinanced war-deficits on the domestic public budget. At the same time most of European countries gradually “dyed their money issuing in dollar-green”, and they also began the inflationary growth that went into stagnating production and employment with still higher inflation to end up with a rate of short interest of 21%. This was indeed the characteristic economic consequences of the welfare that substituted wealth in Scandinavia in the 1970s.   

Dollar seceded from gold: In 1971 Britain also began side by side with France to order redemtion of dollar for gold. Instead of contnuing towards a predictable collapse of the market USA left the redemtion of gold in august 1971. That actually meant that the international monetary system built up a little on gold but much more on dollars dismantled as forseen by almost everybody (among others the Norwegian negociators in Bretton Woods), and the world changed to the system with floating nominal rates of currency[1][1].You may also call this international financial anarchy, if you have understood that the grocer of that time could not sell the scales, and still claim to supply his freshly ground weighed coffee.    

Petrodollars:  OPEC is a cartel that agrees upon a common oil price and distribute quotes of production-capacity among each other. OPEC was founded by Iran, Irak, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela September 1960 (later on more countries joined) with the clear objective to “coordinate and unite” the oil policy in the member countries. After the Teheran Conference 1971 (where the price-settle-initiative was tranfered from the oil companies to the exporting governments) the buyer’s market for oil closed down. Now the need for a floating dollar rate emerged, if the economic worldpower USA – still with trade deficits – should not lose ground. October 1973 OPEC sent price on the oil to the sky with rise of 400%, and at the same time imposed an embargo that forbid shipping of oil to every country that had supported Israel in the “Yom Kippur War” against Egypt, and OPEC reduced the production with 25%. USA had previous reached an informal agreement with Saudi Arabia that the country could invest in USA, if USA assisted Saudi Arabia develop its economy. Apart from the tremendous oil prices-rises – there was another smaller one in 1979 – there was nothing catastrophic in the oil countries requiering more for their oil, when the reserves were limited. The profits earned by sale of oil accounted in dollars floated into bank accounts in Britain and USA, when the OPEC-countries simply could not find a better investment for the petrodollars right away. The problem arising was to allocate the money back into the productive circulation – recycle petrodollars -, now that the West rode on wave of combined stagnation and inflation at the same time. This new phenomenon – the Philip-Curve moved, but not until reality gave inspiration to loosen the premises of the theory – was caused by issuing of money-units, irreversible increases in wage rates and deficit on the public budget. [The reason why was not the oilprice rises even though that was persistently claimed (for 10-15 years) – if not it could be claimed that so-called crisis followed from the heavenward fligt of the oil prices had to be renamed to the normal state. So-called euro-dollar-bonds were issued and became the guarantee foundation for private lending from private banks to the Third World with the Bretton Woods organizations – IMF and the World Bank – in a the role as mediators. The developing countries could not provide money to the more expensive oil from other sources[2][2].   

Petrodollar were the foundation of a huge number of hopeless lending-arrangements, and thereby also the propellant for at lot of debt-crises in the 1980s, and in the 1990s also among more developed nations in Latin America, Asia and Europe.

Who created the risks, and who transferred these risks, and who had to bear the resposibility in the end?  In February 1945 USA made an agreement with the Saudi king about military protection of Saudi Arabia, if USA was given priority to the oil sources of the country. Even though the oil occurences were nationalized in 1976 ARAMCO (an association of Arabic and American companies) was controlling the production and the markets for oil outside Saudi Arabia. Surplus of petrodollars was invested in American government bonds. This market is obviously a power potentiale in the hands of the world’s leading millitary power. An example: In 1980 Iran’s and Libya’s assets in USA was confiscated, and recently organzations dealing with international terrorism suffered the same fate.  

IMF – Debt Crises: With the organization of  IMF – International Monetary Fonds – a link in the international monetary- and ledingsystem, it often was a merciless fight of debt collection against weak founded states in the Third World. It was underlined from a few sources that the yearly new borrowing in Western Europe actually was bigger that the total debt of the developing countries in the 1970s. If we take the question of creditworthiness: the single states that decided the agreement of the Bretton Woods System paid in money, but most were given guarantees[3][3] in the foundations of IMF on behalf of the nations’ taxpayers, and in accordance to how large an economy the nations represented, so the responsibility for the many lending-dispositions in private banks, particulary to the states in the developing countries was rather often in quite another place than the initiative. How these lending-arrangements and other international arrangement was established, you can among others read in Frederick K. Listers ‘Decisi­on-Making Strategies for international Organisations: The IMF Model’, Denver, USA 1984.

How USA dealt with its debts-increase: About 70% of world trade is contracted in dollars. Oil is the most important good in the world, all countries have to get oil, and if they do not have oil they have to buy it, for dollars. That has been the reality for the last 40 years. Recycling of petrodollars have simply been the price that USA have requiered of the oil producing countries for having USA to tolerate an oil exporting supplying-cartel OPEC since 1973. For about two decades USA’s deficit on balance of foreign trade has increased most of the time. Today it amounts to about 25% of the American Gross Net Production (GNP) or about $2.5 (European) billions or $2.5 (American) trillions. In 1988 the balance of trade was in balance, and at this time USA was a creditor nation. Since 2002 the yearly public deficit has been $450-600 (American) billions, or 4.5-6.0% of GNP compared with 1.3% of GNP in 2000, when both federal and the states’ deficits are incounted. Russia and Asiatic central banks in China, South Corea and Japan have bought American government bonds and other assets in accordance with more than 60% of the total public domestic deficit, for more than 1 trillion the last three years to keep up the dollar against Asiatic currencies that actually reduces the domestic issuing of monetary means substantial compared with what it must have been without the Asiatic demand and everything equal. It also appears from the fact that inflation is apparently still under control (in spite of the fact that inflation has a delay before it reach full strenght), and the employment is rising substantial in the fall of 2004. November 24th 2004 the dollar hit the lowest point compared with Yen for the last 9 years and the lowest point compared with Swiss francs for the last 4 years. China began selling dollars of a substantial amount November 27th 2004.In the first half of 2004 more than $201 billions assets were bought up by foreign central banks. Of these are $180 billions American government bonds. In Japan are large parts of the bonds placed as security for Japanese banks that otherwise would have gone bankruptcy, more below. In the case China, it is the result of a large new export of price-competing goods to USA, for example outsourced American, and also Chinese productions that result in the large accumulation of dollars. They are invested in American government bonds and real investments outside China. The currency rate of Chinese yuan is linked to the dollar rate – and this is not just an implication of the buy up of government bonds. This means that the yuan without the US-bonds perhaps would have been in the same boat as USA, when the dollar may fall further. A still continuing fall of about 20% or more of the dollar would lead to a fall in the stock market prices, and also lead to higher dividends, when foreign entries move investments away. 40% of the American government bonds are owned by foreigners, like 25% of the business bonds, and 13% of the US ordinary shares. Behind the placement of the US-debt you also have to take into consideration that China’s demand for energy for the industrial sector is expected to be dubbled in the next 15 years, and the Chinese demand for electricity is expected to dubble in the next 10 year, and to be multipied with four before 2019. Until now USA has been the only country that can increase its purchasing-power on the world market by issuing more dollar-notes. The US-import is about 50% or in dollar-terms or $310 billions more produced produkts than USA export (yearly). That put the country in a special situation, characterized by both power and vulnerability. Without this central, very peculiar status of the dollar and a consequent and constant flow of capital-investments from the whole world, the country would quickly heel over in a catastrophic crisis of balance of payments.   

The US-world-reserve-role changing: From November 2000 Iraque began to settle its oil sale in euro, and at the same time it converted the reserve-foundation “Oil for Food” with $10 billions to euro after an agreement with UN. Between 2001 and February 2003 almost the entier Iraqi oil export was paid in euro, about $30 billions. In the same period the euro increased relatively compared with dollars with 30%. Saddam Hussein had already offered concessions of oil extration to France, China, Russia, Brasil, Italy and Malaysia. Saddam Hussein had until then only used Eruopean banks to the limited sanction program, “Food For Oil”. He awarded the Palestinians with 1 billion euros in 2000. A short time later EU awarded the Palestinians with 90 million euros as a subsidy to show its friendship with the Arabic World, if Israel canceled its payments at that time. A few days later the European Investment Bank made an agreement to lent Syria 75 million euros after eight year with sanctions of have been shut out from making businesses with this country. A little earlier, August 2000, EU donated 1.7 million euros as a subsidy to Eritreans, Etiopeans, Somalis and repatriated asylum seekers from Yemen after the war with Etiopia and famine. Subsidy from EU in euros again: not long ago the Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi proposed an European version of the “Marshall Plan” which he characterized as a generous act to rebuild Europe. He proposed to give the Palestinians a help of a value of 6.2 billion euros in a period of five years.[These last things are included to characterize the motives and the understanding of the situation among the promoters.] From November 2000 to November 19th  2004 dollars decreased relatively to euro with 34.5%, from December 1st 2002 to November 19th 2004 with about 23.5%. A lower rate of dollar made the dubbled result, by lowering the enormous deficit on the balance of payments (an improved balance of trade and an improved balance of the flow of investments), and improve the competitiveness of the exporters that would result in higher investment, and higher employment in these exporting businesses. I addition a lot is pointing in the direction that the petrodollar adventure has ended caused by the increasing import in the oil producing countries, and the reduction of the relative share of OPEC in the total oil export.      

Iraque has the second-largest known reserves of oil among the nations of the world. 45% of EU’s oil import comes from oil sources of the Middle East, 80% of Japan’s comes from the Middle East, that has 60% of the world’s known reserves. USA is not dependent on those oil sources. The shift to petroeuro that is mentioned by few is predicted to have huge effect only if Great Britain and Norweigh introduce euro that would result in North See “Brent” and the Norwegian oil supply being settled in euro. Shortly after Iraque’s move, Jordan began bilateral agreements with Iraque. August 2002 Iran converted more than the half of its currency reserves in Forex Reserve Fund to euros, and China also began to convert some of its currency reserves from dollar to euro. At the same time Russia dubbled the stock the Russian Central Bank of euro to 20% of the total $48 billions. An Iranian senior speaker of the oil industry Javad Yarjani noticed in a speech to the Spanish Ministry of Finance that “it was possible with a increasing trade between the Middle East and the European Union, and that it could be suitable to settle prices in euro. This would create more ties between these blocs of trade with an increasing trade, and at the same time promote a very needed European investment in the Middle East.”     

The British Empire was brought on even keel via the need for Britain to import food, when the domestic agriculture was driven out by the industri. The American Empire may be brought on an even keel via the need for USA to import manufactured goods, when the domestic production was driven out by the financial services.

While the dollar has decreased since 2000 the price of oil settled in dollars has increased. The euro-price of crude oil remained almost the same in the four years period. It just don’t seem logic that this result should occur of simple by chance, and it does not seem to be a surprise either that others could begin supplying a dominant reserve currency. The money plans of EU has not been held entirely top secrete. It is most likely to be a result of considerations of thoroughly planning and design. It also seems as if OPEC react to the dollar depreciation in a most natural way; by increasing the oil price precisely to the point in accordance with the lost they would had to bear is removed.

Japan in debitors trap: The rate of Japanese yen has decreased 5-7% a year compared with euro from 2001 to 2004, notice, a relative decrease to dollar of about the half. This means a yearly depreciation that makes Japanese products more expensive in Japan, and the country is far from being selfsufficient with food and energy. Japan has stagflation and did not get through the last stockshare-bubble-crash in Asia in 1997, because the banks in Japan continued to throw new money after bad money with guarantee of the government, mostly based on American government bonds. February 10th 2002, Observer notes: Japanese consumers flock round the banks to convert the quickly depreciating yen to gold bars. There is fear for the banksystem to collapse, when the deposit guarantee of the government is being removed in Mars. We wrote in 1999 that Japan-government tried to reuse the Japanese economic policy from 1920-1927: to issue billions of yennotes and new credits with which the banks bad loans could be bought up, the assets then had to be overestimated much like in the Weimar Republic in Germany. Now it unfortunately was I the period 1920-1927, where Japan handled precisely the same problem just as wrongly as now in the late 1990s that it would have the one to refer to, if we had to learn from experience. It is not true that history repete without further. But if leading figures use the same false way thinking on the same problem (for example as an act of bad faith), then the superstitious are tempted to believe that history repete.[And it is not totally false, apart from the fact that ignorance’s blind fate must be classified in categories of belonging to an earlier or the coming middle age.] Such a incomprehensible policy was really carried out, also concentrating at negative rates of interests and guarantee of the state for the banks to get the prices to rise “by stimulating the production in this way” in the misunderstood Keynesian way. The falling yen has really got helplessly stuck in a debt trap. The public debt is $5 trillions, a little less than the debt of USA that November 19th 2004 got its borrow-limits increased to $6.4 trillions. More state-debt is continuing contacted at still higher settled prices, even though it just increases the debt. The debt trap is closed, and there is no easy way out. Japan which regardless is an important industrial nation is also a substantial importer of oil. Japan’s surplus of trade from sails of cars and other products was used to import oil settled in dollars. The surplus was invested in American interest bearing government bond and other assets. The government of Japan owns 15% of the American Treasury assets. G-7 was founded to secure Japan and Western Europe within the dollar system. From time to time in 1980s statements about the three currencies – dollar German mark and yen – emerged from different Japanese sources that they should divide the world’s role of reserve under the floating nominal currencies. Until now the dollar remained the dominating.

Euro and European Union: European Union with common compulsory money units, and a constitution is being established among EU’s 25 member-states now. That it is difficult to obtain adequate consensus among the Europeans about the common compulsory money unit is perhaps unnecessary to state. To establish an European monetary union right now, where all European countries are indebted more than ever – apart from perhaps two European countries outside EU -, dominated by unsatisfactory activity and employment anywhere in EU, and even negative growth in the three leading countries, France, Germany and Italy for the second, perhaps for a third year is more than a feat; it is an artificial, ideological construction. The national currency sovereignity has been abolished in the eurozone. The objective is obviously price stability and growth in the eurozone. For years we were lead to understand – in the open – that the currency reform guaranteed price-stable growth, even though the rules about the new currency in the Maastricht-treaty (for example: article 104C) tells something quite different; particulary concerning the newinvented, partly inconsistent and irrelevant so-called claims of convergency that can be overruled, if the Council of Ministers does not estimate the offence to been substantial. The countries – France and Germany – that put these claims into the treaty were the first to offence the rules about deficits, and the relative magnitude of state-debt compared with GNP – they did not even honor this selfchosen claim either without several manipulations with the respective budgets (redemtion of gold and seeling of pension duties) in both the countries, Germany and France, when they invite other countries to qualify for joining the monetary union on the same conditions. In 2004 it continues in Germany with selling of the pension duties of the civile mail-servants. 

Euro and its primery objectives: To assume the common compulsory money unit in any way should reflect the real economic in EU, and serve the union we obvious have misunderstood. Corresponding to Spain’s fatal administration of the gold extracted in Latin America in 1500s it looks as if the euro in the best Mercantilistic way via trade settled in euro for example oil from the Middle East is meant to generate the moment that created change in a Europe with not less than 20% unemployed (official 9%) or expelled, and an enormous state-debt that you no longer can make an unambiguous sketch of. Jean Monnet – one of the founding fathers of project – exactly claimed in the 1950s that the compulsory monetary unit would be used to make the union real in full scale. It was the form, before the contents that counted, we can conclude. If for example one of the Maastricht claims of convergence about the magnitude of the state-debt that must not exeed 60% of GNP should have meant anything serious, between the half and two thirds of countries could not have met this claim without to accept crises of stability. So much can be extracted of those real informations that are released time after time. Apart from Mercantilism that according to history ended with the Napoleonic wars stability and development cannot be measured as an index of prices or some procent-figure. Or when some quantitative standards have been registered, then you can talk about a stable currency (with reference to the five Maastricht-claims of convergence). Stability include the dynamics of the capital formation, security of the investment process, economic growth, education and new technology and high productitiy in a state to claim that its leaders have taken the voters and the nation seriously. All this cannot be obtained or be calculated as some simple static concept. France and the most of the other countries were against the so-called stability pact that could have secured that the central bank acted like the old German Bundesbank, and kept the reins tight, but from quite another starting point. It was decided at the summit of Dublin in December 1998 to drop the stability pact, and France made too large deficits on the public finances in both 2002 and 2003 compared with the Maastricht provisions. The struggle about who should point out the president of ECB (European Central Bank) ended with France. The German Bundesbank was out of step with the German political, financial and industrial elite. But the bank was very popular in the German public opinion. Therefore the politician Helmuth Kohl was very hard pressed between the German and the French Establisment. The French socialists had built in their claims to the subsequent treaties. Now Kohl has gone, and the new German kanzler is a centralist himself. EU has in return recommended a German as leader of IMF. Kohl also had to eat that there were no more talk about pure automatic sanction against a country that makes continuing deficits. Now the claims is activated (according to Maastricht-treaty) when 2/3 of the weighed votes in the actively participating EMU – countries vote for sanctions. France also got approved that a so-called stability-council, and at the same time a directly political rolle built into the monetary policy so that for example guiding lines for the euro currency have to be fomulated politically now.

In addition to introduce the pure (economic) stability pact without order in the member-states’ economies would lead to real political instability. If the amount of money and credit cannot be debated in the whole eurozone, because it has to be decided by a hard ECB, the consequences would be so terrifying hard in some parts the union that political instability would inevitable be the result. Italy and Greece are obvious examples.

To defect this you can then introduce the more well-going countries to hand over “some surplus” from the public finances or “commit themselves to this in advance” (but the problem is that no state can or will do so) to the bad-going Italy, Belgium, Greece, Portugal and Poland. This means on plain English that the public expenditures have to be controled euro by euro in the whole eurozone. This is common financial policy. On that assumption every extravagant expenditure, and a lot more will certainly be stoped.   

If you should judge by the falling D-Mark and the rising Italian lira in 1997-1998, the markets had to have the impression that a soft euro was being established. There was a completely unknown but collosal amount of lira that should have an eternal determined rate in euro in July 1998. How this could happen without a soft euro, would be intereting to have explained, and there were lots of other problems pointing in the same direction.

Already in 1996 you could foresee that the euro would be a so-called junk-currency – that was what the speculators called it -, if Germany, France and Britain should take over the Italian enormous mountain of debt. This would lead to result that ECB had to guarantee the solvence of both Italia, Belgium, and all the other heavily indebted member countries, for example Greece, and the countries that could be expected to join EU in the Eastern Europe at that time. In this way an alliance would be created that would press ECB, and get it to act as if it still controled the monetary policy without really doing this. That was what happened. Real EMU-stringency after the book multiplied by three or four is what should be expected, if we assume economic stability should succeed in the present situation – without a strong lever from outside. But this would imply the lost of political stability as the relations are and may be expected to develop, and the disappointment with the whole project would lead to even more resistance against the project. That is the reason why they still act as if.

Fear of competition narrows the rationality: Globalization means the unlimited mobility of markets included the capital market. The globalization will destroy the democratic society and the welfare state, many maintain. The only reason why is lack of an international monetary system that would have prevented the worst. The total mobility of capital undermine the abilities of the states to regulate. Especially the concern for the labor market: Untercuting and cutbacks have to absorbe what threats to disappear of jobs, among other things by outsourcing. The globale markets of financing are not subject to a regulating mechanism of competition, and they causes crisis upon crisis – Asia, Mexico, Russia and Latin America. The crises will become deeper caused by the paper-mountain of the state-debt that widening the difference between nominal and real values in every community in the long run. And because you have chosen to sell the tape measure instead of using the tape to measure with according to its purpose. It gets worser when all the leaders of the states continues to borrow net more and more. The crises tighten the social pressure with requirements of cutbacks. The pressure of the crises either lead to the dismantling of the welfare states or change them into linked defending blocs (currency blocs like euro, dollar, yen or renminbi-zones) or relapse to the old enemy-pictures that characterized the national states earlier, perhaps a combination of both scenaries. With the dismantling of the democratic founded national- and social state the globalization releases itself at last, because the politicians cannot stand for that the populations/the voters of their countries have to bear heavier and heavier burdens just to offset the worst.

Euro-Union is the prototype of this development. Its bad hidden dubble-motive is a) fear of the dollar-dominans and –competition and b) fear of the united Germany with matching D-Mark-regime.

Fear always build on a false analysis. The US-dollar does not threaten the European market shares of the world trade, but Europe’s lack of knowledge, technique and initiative, especially Europe’s inertia when comes to reforms and renewels. The hardness and the strenght of the D-mark did not prevent the development and the integration of Europe, but the since “Maastricht” the aim was abolishment of the D-mark, and that has then happened. The explanation was that D-mark should have driven the countries in the eurozone (now) into a tight negative development against reforms and with social limitations. Alone these fallacies and false assumption do not allow any realistic expectations about a hard euro. The inflation was programmed in advance. It is perhaps possible to blow more air into it by leting it float in oil at the beginning, but the collapse is then going to be even bigger. All member countries are deeply indebted, and all of them run with deficits.The national governments lost their instruments of management right at the beginning of the euro (currency rate, interest rate, amount of money and flexible budget). They can no longer secure the values of the money, and regulate the labor market, and the social- and ecological standards that the same policians had introduced. Differences of structure and of competition will with governmental suspension be equalized by the market. The battlefield number one is the labor market now, and the social and ecological systems. The labor market suffers from the diminishing of the middle class, the wage rate and social cost competition originate from the workers in the southern and eastern EU-povety-zones, and an inevitable liquidation of the decided national union-wage rates and the minimumstandards of the social level till now. The market sweeps them away, the employers uses more and more their potential of threat that is to move their productions to especially favourable (wage rate, social- and ecologic cheap) EU-zones. Wage rates, social standards and claims of environment in Euroland have to be harmonized downwards. It is the naive imagination of socialdemocrats, the folk socialists and unions that these things must be better after they have signed the Maastricht-treaty. In Euro-Union the social policy has resigned forever – and it is happening with full accept of the socialdemocrats, the folksocialists and unions.  

Euro-Union and globalization: Euro-Union is not the remedy against the employment crisis of globalization. There is nothing special about this globalization; that is an apophthegm; international competition is the right word. Euro-Union strengthens the power of the capital, and helplessness of the state in the role where nothing real can be done to the unemployment without to have the needed instruments. It is a progress towards the 19th century (here the instrument of ruling were searched too), not towards the 21st century. Euro-Union is not even a counterbalance against the unsocial tendenses in the globalization, as the incompetent analysers from the left maintain; it strengthens them further. It simply forces the working life towards the monetary commandos. The European Central Bank (ECB) has to pursue the totally same policy in the 12 different structure countries, without the possebility to resort to the equalizing of the nominal currency rates. To prevent the capital from leaving the eurozone the central bank will have to increase til interest rate; but this decreases the activity and rises the unemployment further. Such an union must end in the conflicts among the states, from which there is no no help to find – if the euro-union is not rebuilt to a transferunion or an federal state with public equalizing between old and new member states, something like the patchwork USA or the German Federal Republic, but without the D-mark. When the transmission of these models show themselves impossible or they meet resistance the question arises: Are there alternative models that can save the world peace? As it runs now: Europe and Arabic world has already begun to cooperate economical, as it was forecasted in North-South-Dialog from 1968 and the European-Arabic Dialog from the midd 1970s. Egypt, Jordan, Marocco and Tunesia decided last year to establish a zone of free trade[4][4], and Algeria, Libanon, Mauretanien, the Palestinian authority and Syria are being invited to join this big zone of free trade. Egypt is expected fully admited in this group of free trade. However EU has negociated with 12 Miditerranean countries as a part of the so-called Barcelona-Process about cooperation between EU and its neighbors around the Miditerranean towards south. The aim in the long run with this Barcelona Process is to establish tighter bond of trade and social questions as well as of political kind. This will lead to the creation of the Euro-Miditerranean-Freetrade-Zone consisting of 27 countries in 2010.

It is possible that the European productions in future may be transferred to North Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, until they come up, and we are put totally down. It is a question if the populations submit to that.    

Two suppliers of internationale monetary means: With the last European-monetary move – if it is an experiment of establishing of the euro as a possible reserve currency or currency for price-settling to some extent in line of the American dollar – no real lift of Euro-Union will happen. “If the occasion should arise there would be to ice cream booths on almost the same bathing beach. The difference to the metaphor is that the booths are supplying monetary means to be able to live on the products of other countries instead of supplying more ice creams, and employ its own working force to produce more products and more services. The climate of investment is far better in the dollarzone of the beach, and the other products and services are far more competitive in the dollarzone. The European Central Bank is organized to prevent euro from falling; it has no means to prevent euro from rising. If ECB are going to issue more subsidy-euros that are covered by the real economy, the economy is further twisted. The deficits on the public finances in the two leading countries of euro-union are of the same magnitude, when compared relatively with GNP, like the corresponding in USA, about 4% against 4,5-6%. But here you have to take into consideration that the whole here is threathened by deflation, if the euro increases 20% further, because the growth in the three leading countries in the eurozone is close to zero. The dollarzone can expect a tremendous improvement of its tradebalance. If this zone is perhaps going towards a more sound value of the dollar, it tempting to propose the single lacking arrangement. A common instrument to prevent crisis upon crisis, deeper and deeper, and at the same time secure that the monetary means are used to what truly is their only useful aim. The classical economists, for example David Hume and John Stuart Mill proved in the 1700s that without order in the monetary relations, there will not be any order in the markets of products. Without an international order of money and credits that is in the interest of the big trading countries, it will go wrong.

The need for introducing of real currency rates: The ruling monetary system until 1971 was not the agreement that the chief-negociator of England maintained for a long time was best to be chosen. To protect against crises and inflation J. M. Keynes showed an internationalt emission-agency with an international monetary unit that was not fully negotiable. It could be bought for gold, but not the other way round. Only if the states of their free will stop the inflation-orgies and the state-borrowing or devaluate (by compulsory) or let the money amount and the credit be ruled by others, it is possible bring harmony into the international system of payment, Keynes maintained. The incitament to speculation is removed at the same time. A monetary measuring instrument without banknotes to determine real currency rates, and it is certanly not suitable to force out national currencies. Real currency rates are the present nominal currency rates corrected for inflation. We have seen in the last half of 1900s that inflation is a distinctly harmful phenomenon. If inflation had made a country’s products lesser competitive, the country could just devaluate the nominal currency rate relatively to all other countries, and in this way benefit by the lower price of its export products, and higher prices of the import products; the exhange-relations to other countries has then been changed. Regardless if this trafic had to be repeated to have any effect – except for inflation – it was the way countries used to go not long time after The Second World War and the reparation.      

There must a possibility for countries to make inflation for limited periods, caused by some structural or developing matters that have to be arranged. Such a possibility must excist, but in such way that other countries are not harmed by this inflation. The country that need inflation have to devaluate at once in advance. It is easy to incount inflation into the currency rate. By this are all other countries protected against inflation, and also against deflation, where the negative growth can lead to standstill, if the right monetary intervention are not carried out in time, as we saw it the 1920s and 1930s. No national currency must be brought into the international monetary system. We have had a much similar system under the so-called gold-coin-basic that was especially connected to the appearance of industralism, its early development, and the worldtrade via City, London. Goldstandard (a looser system) became the pivotal point, but the gold was at the same time a good of trade and therefore it did not have a settled value in itself, but the price was decided by supply and demand from the central banks, lastly a politically decided. An international monetary unit a little corresponding to the ECU – originaly the voluntary European currency unit emitted from an independ organ; it could be exchanged when needed, but for the present aim just a unit of account. A unit of account in an published, settled amount, and at a settled price, an account and reserve unit. No saleable instrument that get impacts from any supply or demand. And international arena where both debitor and credit have to pay interest on loans with the new reserve unit as guarantee, so we prevent lending out at random, and if it does go wrong, ordinary people should not be cheated every time, and it should also prevent crises of finances from overturn one deloping or misinformated country, one upon the other. You can call it a nationalbank of the world as a foundation for the international trade. It is simplicity that everyone can understand: we cannot control the national/international markets of currency from a national central bank, if the international montary unit is for sale, and thereby has become a multi-lend of all national currencies.        

I knew that when I was 21 years old in 1971, and USA ”left the gold” as it was expressed, but selfconfidence grow with experience. I learnt little of economics that offered me a more solid ground to argue from.

And we perhaps have to go through another catastrophe before the leaders understand, what their predecessors did definitely wrong, or were lead to make definitely wrong from their in many respects marionet positions.  

Supplementary readings:

Economics of Tide:

Big recessions and recoveries in the 20th century : http://www.lilliput-information.com/tida.html (part 1)

Big recessions and recoveries in the 20th century (including the role of private company with anonymous ownership): http://www.lilliput-information.com/tidb.html (part 2)

Goldstandard in all combinations:

Gold as an international unit of account for values – a historical statement: http://www.lilliput-information.com/gol1/gol1.htm (part 1)

Gold as an international unit of account for values – a historical statement: http://www.lilliput-information.com/gol2/gol2.html (part 2)

Keynesianism, the misused of J. M. Keynes theories:

J. M. Keynes’ theories, the moment that actual inspired the last dependence: http://www.lilliput-information.com/keyne.html.

November 27th 2004,

 M. Sc. (Economics) Joern E. Vig, Denmark,


[1] We remember how the nominal rates of currency sometimes were devaluated by one country or a group of countries at the same time. We were sure it must be some kind of advanced swindle with the values. We wondered that the other countries accepted it, but we did not fully understood the consequence of fraud then, to all of us. Other arguments than the need for working capital were certainly used.[3]The roles were exchanged from the beginning, The World Bank was no bank, but a foundation, and the foundation was a bank, so let’s describe the first: ”With a share capital of $10 billion distributed among 100,000 shares that should be taken over by the member-states participating in the maintenance of the bank (mine: that certainly was not a foundation neither from the beginning or later on). Admission to this was given to states, that were members of The International Monetary Foundation, but later on other states were given admission too. That was the reason why only $9.1 billion of share capital was supplied at the founding meeting. 20% of the capital should be paid in, of which one tenth in gold (in reality then just 2%), occupied countries could postpone a quarter of payment in gold for 5 years. The main task of the bank was via (mine: private) lending or guarantees to promote the reparation after the war og hereby contribute to the delopment of the international trade and increase the productivity and living standards in the long run. Direct lending should be effected, if the borrower could not achieve a private loan or a gurantee on fair conditions. The management of the bank should be organized after the same principles as the principles in the International Monetary Foundation.” The former Danish Prime Minister Viggo Kampman wrote so as a civil servant in 1944. The italicized originates from the present author.  [4]Free-trade-considerations usually result in more than free trade, when we look behind the political rhetoric, and let the experience count.

The Meltdown of the Monetary system

Filed under: Economics, International Economics — jensn @ 7:54 pm

Meltdown of the monetary system is not new

From the laws of nature versus laws of humanity
– no insurmountably terminological shallow-like clichés included

Real capital is the quintessence of those goods that produces the means of our consumption, and that maintains itself while the production is going on. Capital as a function. The permanent real capital are bind for a longer period in land, buildings and equipment, eventually in inventory. The floating capital is bound in the input of factors in the process of production while this process is running, and eventually in the inventory. The process of production will typically be repeated.

Private capital is characterized by the sum of rights that permits unearned income (often in form of interest and profit due to appreciation), where it is not possible to show any connection to productive activity.

The capital formation should be concentrated in production to satisfy the all kind of needs including the needs of meaningful activity of the labour. The natural order will always turn capital formation in this most profitable real direction among human beings in the long run. But there has never been and never will be a natural order thanks to the politicians acting within an ineffective constitutional protection of the citizens.

Only with this interference the capital formation is directed the stream into private capitalization instead or abroad. As it gets worser the politicians have to incur debt by the international bankers, because all the money issuing at home gets the prices of our goods to rise further than the competition allows. The papers (shares and bonds) in the private limited company and the state-debt-bonds make it even worser. The purchasing power has been pulled out of real production by to high wages, made too high by the too high taxes, both of them simply drains the real capital to private interest earning capital outside the production.  

You cannot claim that all political leaders got insane precisely at the same time.

I don’t buy it.

An example:If you get a public subsidy covering a part of the cost in order to prompt you to renew your apartment houses but without collecting the necessary amount of money by taxation, perhaps I would ask why you did not renew the houses without the public subsidy, and while you are being very fond of the public subsidy, perhaps I will also try to get a public subsidy to renew those houses of mine. The raison to the public inter-ference is the political problems in this case following the increasing unemployment also caused by political interference and the monopoly (read close to dictatorship) of the trade unions. They are talking about renewing the towns. That is a lie. There are several other cases collected from the ideology on the life of the so-called good people that every modern politician literally has to live on. With the public subsidy the rents of the apartments increases perhaps 15-20 p.c., and the so-called value of the apartment houses increases with the capitalization of this increase (the present value of the yearly of monthly increases). When the total rent of the apartments of Copenhagen from 1914 to 1926 increased with more than 40 mill. ddk. a year the fine originators have without the society had become richer created about 500 mill.ddk more private capital, realized, when the apartment houses were sold. That is the capitalization of 40 mill. kr. a year anno 1925. A big part of this amount ran into consumption. In WW a surplus capitalization was made by the share and bond markets and by loans used to pay dividends accounted on a false basis of the values of inventory and equipment.

Read Professor Lauritz V. Birck and the Danish History Of Ship Companies 1912-1920 (and about The Crash Of Landmandsbanken, in Danish http://www. lilliput-information.com/truth/app3.html .)

Denmark was very close to the limit of bankruptcy 1923 thanks to our fine President of the centralbank Rubin and Brandes in the Department of Finances, who prefered to finance the unsatisfied needs and the unpleasantness of the war by loans, and then planned to let the small-holders’ values collapse after the war.

While they were dancing and at last were dying in paper money issued by fraud in USA the prices double more times in Denmark in the beginning of 1920s. Enormous fortunes were collected on private hands, while the state just through bonds into the market. If the state had collected a taxation on fortunes once and for all in 1919 instead of telling the people that you can finance a war with nothing, Denmark would not have had any very serious problems later on. Instead they let the inflation run directly into deflation, where all values (real capital) began to be destroyed.

You have capitalized the possibilities of the future yield and trained the propertied classes to believe that war is a good business, the best investment at all. But you forgot to give them a lecture on the uncertainty of exchange rates, of the rate of interest and of the purchasing power to unspecialized (uneducated) individuals.

The real problem is not that people do not live twice here on the Earth. Their experience is just imperfect when it comes to reality, to real life, and this fact has been used time after time.

Some will try to learn from books and studies. But is not easy even if you are pretty clever. In four years 1935-1939 the concept state debt totally lost its meaning. In 1935 it meant everything, in 1939 it meant nothing. If you asked the logical question following this nonsense in the 1969 you got an answer from the professor saying between the lines that you had not understood anything at all. You certainly have to be strong as a 19 years old country boy.

A little from accurated financial history

A few quotations: Under “Must national debt be paid back”?

“…it is not a natural law that national debt ever should be paid back. The state must naturally pay back a loan, when the payments have to be paid, but if it is not convinient to decrease the debt, the payback can always be done by taking another loan… It is true by both raising a loan and by paying back that the only thing that matters is in what way it effects the economic life or the welfare of the society. There can not be given grounds for paying back national debt, if the effects that the paying back has is not wanted. If there is strong demand for labour under full employment at a moment in the society, the result can only be higher wage that necessary will lead to a rise in the prices, then it is perhaps convinient to collect more tax than necessary to cover the running expenditures, that means pay back the debt, because in that way the demand for resources will decrease. Before such condition has occured or better, before you wish to reduce the demand and the income of the society or a least stop its increasing, there obviously can not be given grounds for reducing the national debt…”

“When the state (on the other hand) is paying out money, it always receives the most of the amount from one or more citizens, and directly it creates an income in this way that correspond to the expenditure reduced by the part that goes abroad. If we for a moment assume that there is balance of the payments understood, as to every increase in import there is an export increase of the same amount, there is created with every expenditure an income of the magnitude in the society”.

“If the state in the same tempo, as it gives money away, collects taxes that are paid of means that the taxpayers otherwise would have given out for demand, or raises a loan that is yielded from money, that on the other hand would have been given out for labor and materials, there will obvious not neither be a smaller nor a larger total income in society, the only thing that happens is that the state now confiscates some resources that on the other hand would have been confiscated to private purposes, or would have benefited other persons than those who have the money now”.

“If the state on the other hand get the concerned money by taking it from its account in the national bank and the national bank does not tightening the credit elsewhere, or the state borrow on the market of bonds and the national bank by convinient buying of bonds prevents a fall in the courses, the expenditure of the state means (not alone) that there is created directly a whole new income of the same amount, but that those, who receive the money, again give some of it to people, who once again increases the expenditures. In this way an expenditure of the state creates for example within a year an increase in the income of the society in the same year, an income that perhaps is 23 times bigger than the paid out amount of money, and because the taxes in this country with the existing laws of taxation are about 25 p.c. of the income, will such an expenditure in the concerned or the next year perhaps give the state and municipalities an increasing tax income to an amount the half or three forth of the amount that can be the basic of the new expenditures or it can be used for lowering the taxes”.

Under “The balance sheet of the state”:

“If you actually want to operate with an idea of balanced sheet of the state as an expression of its economic situation, it must be the ability of the citizens to pay taxes compared with the expenditures that state is planning..” (unquote of the later Professor and Rockefeller Fellow Joergen Pedersen in: ‘Topical Economies Problems’, 1939)

Keynesianism, that Joergen Pedersen here is making marketing for, deals with problems of the society in a very unrealistic way. They are made to formulations of problems in a mathematical language of symbols or something just as limited, there has to be cleared up (as here) a logical, coherent chain of thoughts that neither fit the problem, as it really is, nor include all those things that practically effects the solution of the problem.

For example the influence on the economy of the funds, and the inflation have an inferior place in the works of Keynes and in the works of his epigones.

The same can be said about the national debt, as it appears. The new system (at that time) that should be built up in the after war period, should give exactly free admission to incur national debt. And it certainly did.

The targets for the society are always something like employment, activity and similar. The effect of the public sector on the economy is not interesting to a Keynesian, and you will at once be in doubt if the declared targets for the economy are anything but to ‘the exterior’ opinion, as Keynes himself called it, before he won the Nobel Prize (se below).

The whole entrance to the Keynesian way of thinking gives evidence of a fatal need of interest of reality, for example if the assumption all together and each of them draw a true picture of the reality at all, and then this cyberspace reality that they seek to give predictions to. It will be a special problem to the Keynesian to try to cover himself up behind assumptions all the time, so what he has said, is logic, when all assumptions have been remembered. If these logical relations, scholastic rides tell anything about the effects of different political economic actions from the authorities towards some correctly described phenomena in the society do not in principle interest the Keynesian. Here he has secured his retreat. It is a very central part of the Keynesian learning to train this. I have trained myself until I could not take more lies. My upbringing simply forbad me to continue the lies.

Therefore I must say: Do not listen to the Keynesian, he will coax you to do, what he believe in, and if you do not understand, what he is telling you, he will explain to you at last by referring to your lack of education (scholastic).

Precicely the same method that what used about 100 years before when you was explain why the gold standard what mattered

I have to inform you that the Danish Joergen Pedersen, who became a Rockefeller Fellow, perhaps could have won the Nobel Prize instead of John M. Keynes. Pedersen was not very known in the Swedish Academy, and many of his earlier writings were not written in English. 

The practical rediscovery:

From 1994 they are talking about paying back the national debt in Denmark. But nothing of the kind happens, the debt still rises every year until recently (2006). From 31. March we were expected to forget it ever excisted according the rather twisted information in Jyllands-Posten. If the national debt was beginning to be paid back the unemployment would increase, the keynesians would tell you. The unemployment in Denmark is between 500,000 and 700,000 or 17-24 p.c. of the laborforce in 1999. I have tried to give an total presentation of the unemployment-accounts-problems on: http://www.lilliput-information.com/led/index.html (in Danish).

Pupils who always work and always talk, tell you that the unemployment in Denmark is less than 150,000. That is the figure when you when you concentrate on the unemployed members of unemployment security system. The expelled ones do not exist. They did not in the Soviet Union and DDR either.

In 1933 the unemployment was 33 p.c. (the highest ever in Denmark) of the labor force (accounted in 1933). In September 1939 (when the World War II broke out) the unemployment increased 16,000, even if 20,000-30,000 were called to the military forces. In the years before unemployment had been reduced by public occupational work (‘New economics’, ‘Recovery’ or ‘New Deal’ made in USA), by exporting more to Germany, which were preparing for war, and by national debt, that means transforming more and more real capital to private capital.

At this time the unemployment were especially reduced by the Keynesian so-called ‘kickstarting’ operations. That the money was destroyed in this way did nearly nobody discover, because the war also made a new international monetary system that was based entirely on credit economy alone and and paper that is the same.

That the effect of this blind using of the theories of Keynes led to a public sector ruled by bureaucratic principles, a public sector that was a good deal larger than the things ruled by private, individual dispositions, and a colossal national debt ought to have been foreseen, but the theories did very convenient not tell this, the theories that were followed blind for 70 years. The dictatorship based on the nonsense writings by Karl Marx also lasted for 70 years. Nothing has been left to uncertainty if you look in right direction.

How should an unskilled individual know what to do? That is the reason why I got the right to vote.

A little accuracy about the between war period: 

John Galbraight still maintains the German economy recovered from 1933 by civil production, and he intend to let us believe that the German method was a kind of the so-called new economics. He seems to want us to forget a lot. In 1932 4.1 mill. Germans were unemployed. Two years later the number had been reduced to 2,4 mill. In 1998 (the election year) the unemployment in Germany with nearly the same population as in 1933 was officially 4,3 mill. The SPD-politicians just before the election to the Bundestag maintained that this number was not correct. The real or the true number was about 10 mill. (the same four years later at the next election 2002). In the late 1920s and the beginning of the 1930s the motorization came as a gift from the technical knowledge, the arming had been started, and productions and development of arms had long been going on in cooperation with the Soviet Union (unofficially). A restrictive control of the currency, tax discount tickets, and especially the suspension of the trade union wage rates was the axis of the German recovery policy from 1933.

From 1924 Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht was commissioner of the the Reichcurrency i Germany, later on President of Reichbank. April 7th 1924 his attack on inflation began with the decision to stop credit. This led to the Dawes Plan og August 16th 1924. The interest rate rose to the sky and the share prices were reduced to the half. With a short pause from spring 1930 to spring 1933 Schacht continued as the highest in charge in Reichbank under the Hitler regime until November 26th 1938. Schacht actually fought the deflation in Germany.

Some do still think that the way Hitler (or Schacht) went to get rid of the unemployment was to print notes. On the contrary as just mentioned. Schacht was not a Nazist, and he was highly respected in every central bank of the Western world. He opposed to Hitlers plans of war and chasing. Schacht ruled the emission of money issuing, decided the economic and monetary policy and controlled the effect. In 1938 Hitler accepted a proposal by Hermann Göring to introduce 4 years plans like the 5 years plans in the Soviet Union. At the same time Hitler intensified the chasing of judes. Then Schacht decided to go (January 1939). He was called back twice but left to join the forces fighting against Hitler.

Hjalmar Schacht got the claims of reparation, first decided in with the Dawes Plan of 1924 (after Worldwar I) reduced with the Owen D. Young Plan (1929). The original claims on Germany of the Versailles Treaty in Paris of 1919 would have brought Germany in famine with thousands of deads. All the industrial network found its way through the international lines but the ordinary germans without the knowledge of what was happening and possibility to use this knowledge went either bankructcy, lost their savings and got hungry. J. M. Keynes documentated this very properly in his excellent book The Economic Consequences Of the Peace (of December 12th1919) in which he took the Versailles Treaty apart. All qualified economists of the time agreeded with Keynes, e.g. Gustav Cassel and Bertil Ohlin and a lot of other. The year before (1918) Hjalmar Schacht wrote in his diary:

“Violence not even Money/Is shaping the World/Intellectual Power and Traditional Trade and Living/Prevail upon Worlds to Alter”

(translated from German). 

Back to capitalization

– without real bases no reality :

This process of capital formation towards private capital or out of the country is speeded up in a society where capital is a stronger and stronger condition to live in freedom and security.

“History do not repeat. Oh I see, people are becoming better and better all the time”. It is tempting to take dismantling for development, I must say. To the first sentence of the last paragraph, try : http://www.lilliput-information.com/gol1/gol1.htm

But no sound production has been carried out caused by the Danish (1993-2000) public subsidy either. The money has been circulated, and the citizens still believe it was sound. But the prices are beginning generally to rise. At the same time the politicians have artificially lowered the interest rate in order to get activity to increase, and by this they stupidly hope to reduce unemployment. Instead they tempt the capital to leave the country. Let us take the subsidy (there are hundreds of issues as well):

Public subsidies draw the initiatives and the money to those areas that the politicians especially are concentrating the subsidies on. The activity then increases for some time, and the suppliers notice sales are indeed growing too. If the subsidies are increased all the time the Economy Of Command and the State Of Civil Servants grow, so does the distortion of the economic natural order. When subsidies stops or they are just not increased further all the time, the depression slowly becomes deeper and deeper, and the end result is even worser than before the subsidy. The reason for this is that politicians deal with problems that do not excist without the politicians almost all the time.

The thirties were also dominated by this subsidy-economy. New Deal it was called, in reality mostly inspired by J. M. Keynes from England. The economist who designed the Bretton Woods Aggreement. Jacques Delors, a French Socialist and the former President of the European Commission, said in 1995 that he was very fond of subsidies like those used in Denmark. Now he is a member of the Bilderberg Group.

Today company emptying is going on (much more explanation to this on: http://www.lilliput-information.com/gol2/gol2.html#pri), it continues while some of the authorities participate themselves in double parts. Just one tiny example more of what is going on, also in Denmark. The state issues bonds at a discount with a constant interest rate on to call in purchasing power that should have benefited the society as real capital, but that is not enough. On this route of death the fine leaders have also tried for a period of ten years now to collect foreign currency abroad in competition with all the other European debt and deficit countries by selling the bonds for foreign currency. They are tempted by the constant rate of interest and secured from collapse of exchange rates in countries they use to buy from. Loan debt in fairness is the most pressing burden.

They built on a lie, they continue on lies until they are dead. Then their fry of the devil takes over the visible power based on more fraud. “In the long run we are all dead”, wrote Keynes.

It is the same all over Europe – except for Switzerland, Ireland and Norway. The real capital has not yet been totally destroyed by war, mostly by secret abundance public consumption in the public and union foundations, much more than the highest taxation of the world managed to finance. Wage confiscation must be the right word, when the rate of taxation exceeds 50 p.c. of income – today all in all about 65 p.c. In Europe an abnormal amount of paper, and even under favourable possibilities of production it would have been a scandal to talk truthfully of prosperity at an acceptable rate employment. But Europe is even lacking of innovation, low technical level and false education at the same time they are constructing a new compulsory and political ruled currency of unit. As a result the direction of the capital formation is e.g. USA and unearned private capital. They try to protect themselves from the truth an responsibility, not as they use to say the Europeans from Globalization, in reality they believe in, what their friends the multi trillionaires abroad told them: “You shall become the real power brokers in a centralized and politically correct European Empire”

I would correct it to: Take your position in the line of Cesar, Filip II, Louis XIV, Napoleon, Stalin, Kaiser Wilhelm and Adolph Hitler.

To secure that we will not return to real life again they even transformed our children to animals. Steady and persistent for a period of 150 years: http://www.lilliput-information.com/wu.html.

And that is also the reason why I look forward to (economic) Globalization without ideology, and the reason why I made some outlines of a new stable international monetary system:

http://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/05/19/new-monetary-system/

It is better for the all peoples to die a natural death than to be executed by the devil’s servants here on Earth. The natural death what so ever makes the few survivers stronger than before. The devil’s servants in contrast to this always execute the strongest.

To go further I would propose:
http://www.lilliput-information.com/gol1/gol1.htm

and
http://www.lilliput-information.com/tida.html 

M. Sc. (Economics) Joern E. Vig, Denmark

Six Good Reasons

Filed under: Economics, migration, Statistics — jensn @ 3:28 pm

Six Good Reasons

Filed under: Economics, Immigration — Sonia Wahnloop @ 3:22 pm Edit This

Information of Denmark collects and forwards politically incorrect information. The menthal-robots don’t want to know it, because the truth disturbs the cyberspace or scrap that the power-brokers feed them with daily.

Six Good Reasons – why all the most foreign immigrants and their descendants have to be counted correctly:

Before 1970 Denmark had almost no foreign immigrants.

Officially 337.243 foreigners[1], and their descendants included the ones with a Danish citizenship or about 6 p. c. of the population stayed in Denmark 1 January 2006. Associated professor Hans Oluf Hansen Copenhagen University reported in the newspaper Berlingske Tidende 20 August 2005 that the original Danes would become a minority before the end of this century, if it continues.[2]

As on the other hand the official Danish projection of population was presented in the newspaper Jyllands-Posten 29 August 1999 (refered to in JP 21 August 2005[3]), and it showed 13.7 p.c. immigrants and descendants totally in the year 2020, professor P. C. Matthiessen who commented the figures, was almost attacked via the media [4]. The account is even in a worse way:

Information of Denmark reports:

There were already more than 690,000 most foreign foreigners, naturalized and their children 1. January 2006 corresponding to more than 13 p.c., and Danes will for certain become a minority between 2035 and 2045, if it continues:

http://www.lilliput-information.com/uscan.html (corrected official status in English) and

http://www.lilliput-information.com/edu/index.html (realistic projection in Danish)

To be able to prove the magnitude of the project might help us to be able to tell where we are, and it might perhaps also tell us how quickly we move towards a rather doubtful future. But was it meant to be(?) When we look at what happens in the community, it seems beyond doubt that the so-called activities of integration do not have much effect, at least definitely not the official expected effect.

Recently Danish authorities had to admit this:

Second and third generation of immigrants and their descendants even commit a larger share of the criminal acts relatively to their share of population than their parents – even when the account has been corrected from the defective official account of population that paradoxically overestimate the criminality among immigrants.

82 p.c. of the crimes among youngster less than 18 years in Copenhagen (2004) were commited by foreigners. And the group of immigrants in those ages amounted 28 p.c. of all in those ages in Copenhagen, compare Denmarks’s Statistics matr. BEF3 mentioned with figures in http://www.lilliput-information.com/domv.html (in Danish).

Second and third generation gave birth to 10 p.c. more children a woman in average than their parents did, accounted in a period of six years in Copenhagen, compare with the manager of the bureau of statistics Claus Woll, referred to in the newspaper Soendagsavisen 25 January 2004.

Second and third generation have a weaker connection to the labourmarket than their parents.[6]

The number of immigrant from the mentioned areas is the only number of visitors that always increases – in periods an exponential increase – for the whole 26 years period from 1979. The immigrants from less developed countries load the Danish public sector three times more than the Danes in average – according to the latest reports from the public established Commission of Welfare, supplemented with a few quotations from the same: “…the immigration from less developed countries to Denmark laod the public finances substantially. The participation in working is low – especially the women. Among those on the labour market the unemployment is high – among other things because a lot of them do not the qualification to get a job at a lowest wages of the market…” “…Immmigrants from less developed countries receive more from the public fonds than they contribute via taxes. The reason is that they have low career participation and as a rule do not leave the country again before they get old. They receive 2.6 mio. dkr. more in a lifetime than they contribute to the public sector…”

The word integration has been used as a magic formula for 25 years precisely like the remark “Sesam-Sesam open up” in the 1001 Nights’ fairytale. In the fairytale it works, and that is just the way of the Postmodernist – free in the air floating.

The brief account of the number: – from the number births to the number of foreign immigrants Three most essential reasons of the low number of births among Western women: 1. In average the first cild is born when the mother is about 28 years or more – this mean it become more difficult to get more children thereafter. 2. 15-20 p.c. of the women in the age of 40 in the Western countries has no children – this figure has increased substantially 3.

Abortions have increased to an amount of more than 15,000 of a birth cohort of 68,000-70,000 in Denmark, compare DR-texttv 20 Mars 2006. Point 2 is characteristic for European unemployed or expelled women from the labour market (20-25 p.c.) who do not dare to give birth to children. The same pattern was retrieved, and is clearly found today in the old Eastbloc. The number of births has been reported in more details on:

http://www.lilliput-information.com/fertt.html – in the world) (in Danish)

http://www.lilliput-information.com/ferteu.html – in Europe (in English)

 http://www.lilliput-information.com/fertty.html – in Germany (in Danish)

http://www.lilliput-information.com/fertfr.html – from number of children to the percentage of foreign immigrants (in Danish)

There is just one reason why population in Denmark has increased for the last 26 years: The steady increased influx of immigrants and their births. The Danes just give birth to half of what is needed to secure a stable Danish population, when the deaths has been subtracted. In 1979 5.117.000 lived in Denmark.

1 January 2006 the population amounted 5.427.459. It looks as if the difference must be a little more than 317,000. The number of Danes has decreased (very characteristic) since 1968, when the average number of births a woman got lower than 2.1. The 317,000 is less than half of the story that we proved in quite another too (read below). Since 1979 Folketinget (the Danish parliament) has given Danish citizenship to 189,910 individuals since 1979, compare Danmark’s Statistics Statisticbank, and the children that the naturalized have born after they got the letter from Folketinget is being accounted as if they are Danes.

1 January 2006 the result is that more than 690,000 with most foreign origin in Denmark from areas outside Western Europe, North America, Israel, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. It has been proved using another method on: http://www.lilliput-information.com/uscan.html I.e. there were 4,737,459 (5,427,459 –690,000) Danes and Westerners (of which about 74,000 other Westerners) in Denmark, and this corresponds to the decrease in the number of children among Westerners, as this has been recognized in the whole Western world. A decreased of about 3.0 – 3.5 per mille a year all over Europe. This results in 4,732,488 for the 26 years period.

There was 99,796 foreign citizens in Denmark in 1980, compare table 31 in Statistical Yearbook 1987 from Danmark’s Statistics), of which about 47.880 were foreigners from the areas subjects to this reading. This number has more than doubled in the 26 years period. Granted Danish citizenships before 1979 has not included, and the Danish women (as mentioned) gave birth to too few children already from the famous year 1968, so the difference is even bigger. A total going through and prove (by use of quite another method) of the true development for last 26 years has been given on: http://www.lilliput-information.com/uscan.html.

As for the immigration from Turkey and Pakistan for the last 26 years read: http://www.lilliput-information.com/engtyda.html

Changing political leaders in Denmark and all over Europe perhaps were worried of their fellow countrymen to die out caused by too few births, and as an nearby result to get lower and lower tax-payments. They got an idea, a splendid idea accompanied with the leading figures of the world:

The population surplus of some islamic contries

Years 1998/2050 (in millions)

Compare: UN World Population Prospects,

1998 revision:

Iran: 64 mio./115 mio.

Tyrkey: 65 mio./101 mio.

Egypt: 66 mio./115 mio.

Bangladesh: 123 mio./212 mio.

Pakistan: 142 mio./345 mio.

The result remains the same, and the end-result is reached even quicker – about double as quickly. The deciding for the political, so-called professional leaders with their eyes to number one: “It shall not happen before we have gone”. But here we must try to prepare them for the joyful truth that the political effect on stability, and what is worse shall begin long before the Danes have become a minority in their country about 35 to 45 years from now (27 Mars 2006), and obviously longer before the Danes have died out …does it not look like this already?

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Footnotes:

1) From areas outside Western Europe, North America, Israel, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

[2]http://www.berlingske.dk/grid/viden/artikel:aid=616170 (in Danish)

[3] http://www.jp.dk/arkiv:aid=3213638:ssid=404746 (in Danish)

[4]In this account all later generations of descendants than the first have got the predicate Danish.

[5]http://nyhederne.tv2.dk/article.php?id=1700989 (in Danish)

[6]Documentation of 18 October 2005: ”The Sons of the Immigrants do not get Work” By Martin H. Damsgaard and Christian Friis Hansen http://epaper.jp.dk/18-10-2005/demo/JP_04-01.html (in Danish) “..Sons of immigrants supply the workforce to a still smaller degree on market of labour in the town Aarhus. According to the chairman of the Thinktank for Integration of the government Erik Bonnerup, Aarhus have to take action as quickly as possible. It is a substantial problem that might load the economy of the town seriously, and you ought improve the situation as quickly as possible…” Immigrants on the German and Danish labor market, Rockwool Foundation (another so-called Thinktank), October 2004: ”…Germany has had an decreasing trend in the employment for non-Western immigrants since the midd 1980s, and this is a development that can traced back to the beginning of the 1970s.This development has its parallel in Denmark, where the employment frequency decreased markedly form 1985 to 1994. Even though the employment has increased afterwards not least caused by the economic boom, the employment among non-Western immigrants has never reached its earlier level. Founded on sequence-data from Denmark we can conclude that much of the explanation to the decreasing trend of employment is that the new non-Western immigrants who has arrived in Denmark after the 1970s, have had a much weaker connection to the labour market from earliest beginning until 1999 every year’s of the newcomers have in this way had a lower career participation than the ones from the year before…”

[7] 5.117.000*(1-0,003)^26 = 4.732.488 ‘if your heart is filled use your brain’

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You cannot  get  this information anywhere else in Denmark. The work takes place under circumstances that nobody in the politically correct cadre is able to imagine. A contribution to the continuing production and to make it publicly would be welcome on the account in Danske Bank (Danish Bank) Reg. No 3629 account number 3629461213

Joern E. Vig, M. Sc.(Economics), Denmark

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