October 7, 2006

Causal-interpretation almost left

Filed under: Education, perspectives, Statistics — jensn @ 5:56 pm

Causal-interpretation almost left – except when it fit into the ideology

that is politically correct

The big jump in the economic and political science of society happens at the transition from the phase, where you can or can not explain and foresee the behavior of the human being to the managed influence on behavior, watching and control. The corresponding model of the explanation and forecasting of the human being suites the underlying so-called empirism later on positivism, which model-apparatus uses the model of causal-interpretation that needs the past to explain the presence and the future. The experience, the past and also the cause are not acknowledged, and this is perhaps quite legitimately to maintain, when models show themselves not to apply to the outside world, even if you have made an effort with all possible interpretations, especially those in symbols of mathematical language.

And it is of special interest, when we for a moment concentrate our thinking a little on just another circle of subjects – which has not been discussed anywhere else in this critical light:

Environment, ecology, stratosphere, menaces to the globe, effects on heath, influence of individual behavior in this connection and the correlation including the influence of businesses on the surroundings and the commissioner’s influence of behavior on the producer. Taken in a random order, which is the custom in this subjects.

In the treatment of these subjects it is fully correct to show “coherence including causality” between this and that. This is often done by using the so-called statistical, quantitative methods.

They use phenomenons that can be described using figures. I can assure the reader that two of the used methods, Regression and the Chi-test among others have been used many times to obtain the wanted coherence or the wanted causality from the model. Statistical method of analysis, behind the most ‘so-called investigations’, which is shown to the reader very often on TV as a report, an examination or the like. They all show that something-must-be-done or problem-reaction-solution.

The methods are very fine mathematics, but when you use them, it is very easy to 1. Interpret the problem wrong, 2. To choose a nonsense-coherence or, 3. To select the wrong method, 4. To use the methods wrong, 5. Interpret the results from the model wrong, 6. To make a wrong conclusion on the basis of the results of model and transmit these results to be results of the real world. Finally you can give the material to an unsuspecting, but “very understanding” journalist at a powerful medium. As you perhaps might understand, there are several possibilities and especially a lot of impossibilities.

One of these is (read 1. above):

Because two phenomenons appear at the same time, there do not have to light a clear and imperative coherence between them. If for example the number of couples of storks in Denmark in the summertime has increased from 12 to 25 couples in the last two years, this is not a sure indicator of a so-called boom of babies among the Danes. “Babies are comming with the stork”, small Danish children were told earlier. In the beginning of the 1990s the Danish authorities informed about a boom of Danish babies, although the Danish did not seem to give birth to more children. The number of babies beared by foreigners or their children could be 20,000-25,000 a year – you can not see how many – out of a birth-number of totally about 70.000 a year. It should be mentioned in this connection that the Danish made – and still do – between 17. 000 and 19. 000 abortions a year in the beginning of the 1990s.

On these stratetic subjects, the fear of the unknown, of the distant, of the unchallenged till now, for the unexamined, where refined methods of measuring often effect the observation, very much can be shown and very much can not be refused – on the other hand to prove is something else. There are plenty of current phenomenons, plenty to undertake.

Environment, illness, health and the contributions in these connections. And then the career.

The environment-ecology-consciousness (do not read knowledge) is already profound and solid incorporated in marketing, pedagoy….everything. Perhaps with Al Gore as the next American President from 2001 we shall see the world turn into an environment dictatorship.

The paradox and dilemma of the prevention – the claimed effect appear in the long run, and it is difficult to reject the effect of prevention a priori – will surely be used the with most explosive effects in the mind of the individuals of the masses.

It is interesting that the cause very easy can be used here, even though equivalence, unambiguity, func-tionality, really are serious scientific problems, which often are overlooked, even though these problems are rather determining.

You have to understand: The end justifies the means – especially for many ambiguities ones among the ‘The Jesuits of the Time’ for the salvation of the world. This was just a little disgression, but not without importance.

A total statement about this theme ought to have a reading of its own.

If the fourth power or wave (after or at the same time as the third power) should not be found exactly around these new so-called “scientific-like causal-shows”, I should wonder a great deal. The witchcraft at least can contribute to, what David Icke call the “Something-Have-To-Be-Done-Effect”, which precisely matches Hegel’s Tese-Antitese-Syntese planning-model.

It can happen at the same time that essential facts are totally overlooked – the cause can be used, when needed to reach the politically correct effects.

An example from Denmark is The Water Environment Plan. Price 17 Mia. DKr. Several facts were completely overlooked in spite of the fact that you could have learnt in Holland, and could have learnt a little more inorganic chemistry too. This was shown in Jyllands-Posten by our famous patriot from World War II Flemming Juncker.

From causal-models the transition first went towards the philosophical society-thinkers. They describe, interpret and seek understanding. With this starting point causal-models are getting insufficient, because the personality can not objectively analyzed. This has been shown already by the philosopher Emanuel Kant.

The theory of behavior is powerful, generally also in the Danish (economic) HD-education, and first-rate men lead the arrangement, the lectures, the problems, the seminars and the examination. One of these Professor Flemming Hansen wrote publicly – under the third wave – November 21st 1989 and November 6th 1992 that 15 millions ought to live in Denmark. Of these 15 millions – we have near 5,3 millions inhabitants for the moment on our 43,850 square-kilometers – only half of them need to be individuals which have been born in Denmark.

The number of professors of this kind is increasing all the time.

Let me quess, the fourth wave is the environment used in a political correct way on the minds of the first-rate men and women.

For some practical calculations of relevancy:


Regression and Correlation

But power is not just what you fill into the minds of the individuals We have to look at the collapsed monetary system too

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