November 15, 2007

India and China is more than a moon shot

Filed under: Economics Statistics, Globalization, perspectives, Research, Statistics — jensn @ 11:05 am

Now that oil age comes to an end, when you look at the known and used resources:

13 November 2007, Financial Times
“The increase in
China’s energy demand between 2002 and 2005 was equivalent to Japan’s current annual energy use.”

China’s demand for energy for the industrial sector is expected to be dubbled in the next 15 years, and the Chinese demand for electricity is expected to dubble in the next 10 year, and to be multipied with four before 2019.

India and China is more than a moon-shot


Excerpt from: http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2007SUM.pdf

“As they become richer, the citizens of China and India are using more energy to run their offices and factories, and buying more electrical appliances and cars. These developments are contributing to a big improvement in their quality of life, a legitimate aspiration that needs to be accommodated and supported by the rest of the world…”

According to World Energy Outlook 2007

If governments around the world stick with current policies – the underlying premise of our Reference Scenario – the world’s energy needs would be well over 50% higher in 2030 than today…”

“The world’s primary energy needs in the Reference Scenario made by http://www.iea.org are projected to grow by 55% between 2005 and 2030, at an average annual rate of 1.8% per year. Demand reaches 17.7 billion tonnes of oil equivalent, compared with 11.4 billion toe in 2005…”

“…Developing countries, whose economies and populations are growing fastest, contribute 74% of the increase in global primary energy use in this scenario. China and India together account for 45% of the increase in demand in this scenario…”

“…China, with four times as many people, overtakes the United States to become the world’s largest energy consumer soon after 2010. In 2005, US demand was more than one-third larger…”

“…OECD countries account for one-fifth and the transition economies the remaining 6%…”

“…World oil resources are judged to be sufficient to meet the projected growth in demand to 2030, with output becoming more concentrated in OPEC countries – on the assumption that the necessary investment is forthcoming…”

”Just since the continents began to interact politically about 500 years ago, Eurasia has been the center worldpower”.

Eurasia is all land east of Germany and Polen. The key to control Eurasia, Brzezinski say, is the control of the central Asiatic republics including the Middle East and India. The key according to Brzezinski is Usbekistan.


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