Dissidentpress

April 16, 2009

Predictability and responsibility, ruthless optimism and blind self-sacrifice

tarski

Predictability and responsibility,

ruthless optimism and blind self-

sacrifice

Jehu Lentius – 2.12. 2008

Dansk version

Let us add some own reflections about this ‘baby boom’ phenomenon, by some naivists seen as a welcome and beneficial rise in the ‘European fertility’, by others as the ominous first stage of an accelerating replacement of the British population by another one, i.e., mainly by Muslims and other Third Worlds immigrants.

To make own calculations we must understand that, if the ‘maintenance’ fertility of a population at 2.1 means that the population remains roughly constant, then a fertility of 1.05 (the lowest fertility within the EU is near to 1.1, the average at 1.4-1.5 1)) means that within a human lifetime (about 3 generations) the population will shrink to 50 %, which not necessarily is a bad thing in one of the world’s most densely populated region. But it is fatal, if at the same time and in the same place an Oriental fertility of 4.2, which means a doubling to 200 % instead, takes over. It is fatal for the European culture, for its wealth, for its freedom – it is just the often warned-for way into dhimmitude.

The situation of a rapidly shrinking population means in principle that the normal ‘pyramid’ of a rapidly growing population, 2 parents, 4 children and 8 grandchildren, is turned around: 4 grandparents have 2 children which have 1 grandchild. Western Europe’s endogenous population is today half-ways into this situation and has to be cautious to stay in control of its own fate. Instead, it is embezzling its demographic achievement (of peacefully coping with its own overpopulation) by importing the Third World’s potential for marching straight into the ‘overpopulation trap’, which for underdeveloped populations seems to be unavoidable, when only voluntary means are applied (see the significant difference between India, Pakistan and Bangladesh on the one hand and China on the other).

If Muslim fertility is threefold the fertility of non-Muslims (as it is in Britain), this population exchange will pro­ceed surprisingly fast, faster than in many other countries. You may study the curve for France, calculated for actual reproduction (= fertility) rates of 1.4 vs. 3.8 in the chapter about France (page xxx): The same process in Great Britain could be even faster. The ‘break even point’ for France is about 2087 (or earlier) – the one for Great Britain could come around the same time. The prediction by Bernhard Lewis that Europe will be Islamized at the end of this century (2100), which is doubted bay many naivists, could turn out to be still optimistic. What world do we, by deliberately importing Muslim fertility into our own countries, hand over to our grand­children? A giant Gaza North Bank, a British Waziristan – or just a giant European Libanon? Is is possible that the World will see both ‘The Balkanization of the West’ (Stjepan Mestrović), ‘The Disuniting of Europa’ (Arthur Schlesinger jr), ’The Clash of Civilizations’ (Samuel P Huntington) and ‘Eurabia’ (Bat Ye’or) come true, and all four processes happening on the same European ground. The resulting deluge of exilants and refugees will be appalling. The prospects that America, at that point of time, still is a safe heaven for Europeans are bleak. Maybe the waves of fugitives will seek their way to the Eastern countries of the former Soviet block, so long protected by a ‘blessing in disguise’: their long-standing lack of economical and political attractivity, inflicted by the short­comings of communism and its totalitarian ruthlessness. Which we can study in Chechnya, boostered by events like the Dubrovka theatre siege 2002 (at least 170 deaths and 700 injured) and the Beslan school massacre 2004 (at least 385 deaths and 783 injured).

In Dutch Utrecht, lately, the prevalence of immigrants was around 30 %, of children in school around 50 % and of newborn 70 %, which is among the highest in Western Europe. You need not study mathematics or statistics to conclude that this some day in the near future will be the proportion of adults in Utrecht. Their newborn rate will then exceed 90 %. (That was – exactly! – the fate of the Egyptian Copts and of many other religious min­orities throughout the Middle East and many other Islamic realms.) For the liberal modern countries in Europe with open arms for the sufferings, the conflicts, and the misery of the developing World, time is of the issue. Indeed, it’s already running out. The laws of nature work merciless.

One option is surely disastrous: If we will remain passive and allow the problem to culminate as it has done in some 30 countries around the world, today torn by civil wars and terror, we will never be able to find a good ex­cuse. Those who cause, permit or – even worse – facilitate this crucial demographic and even social, cultural, political and developmental shift, shoulder a tremendous responsibility. Especially, because by doing so they ignore their own highly concerned peoples’ explicit will. This is shown by poll after poll all over the Western world. Therefore the people self will not be asked any longer and to respect their opinion will be denounced as ‘populism’ (a remarkable critic, as ‘populus’ in Latin means the same as ‘demos’ in Greek.).

I suppose there is no other way for the concerned European countries, threatened by the loss of their sovereignty and their freedom, to stop this detrimental process than speak out their will louder and louder and be free, resp­onsible and courageous citizens, impossible to overrun by their own governments, blinded by goodwill, seduced by illusions, corrupted by their own ruthless optimism and suffocated by their ill-considered, unlimited and self-sacrificing social pathos.

Sonia

My comments:

1) According to EUROSTAT the total fertility in the 15 EU old countries and in all the 25 EU countries was respectively 1,46 and 1,49 i 2004. This implies that the etnic European fertilities range from 1,0 to 1,1. This implicates further that the development runs about 40-50% quicker than described in this article. 

The last question is certainly the most alarming concerning the quantative persepctive that nobody has dealt with outside Denmark. Unfortunately I cannot get closer to the source. I can say that the substance of this article matches almost precisely with the results in readings concerning Denmark and Sweden on http://Danmark.Wordpress.com .This could indicate that the mathematics behind the calculations leading to the results might be ok.

WHO KNOWS THE AUTHOR AND WHO WILL FIND THE SOURCE?

 

Complement on fertility in Danish: http://danmark.wordpress.com/2007/02/05/antal-boern-og-fremmedandel-der-lyves-groft-herom/

Complements on fertility in English:

www.lilliput-information.com/ferteu.html

2. lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects…
Assume for a moment that the increase in fertility from 1.14 to … immigrant-group and continue the fertility-pattern of this group for … 1.14 is the fertility among the ethnic Danes
http://www.lilliput-information.com/engeuarb.html

3. lilliput-information, Information of Denmark, immigrants in Denmark,fag
Provisional comments to newest investigation of fertility among immigrants in … demografic parameter of fertilityamong foreign women immigrated to Denmark. Fertility is the average
http://www.lilliput-information.com/engfer.html

4. lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects…
English comments to the investigation of fertility among immigrants in … demografic parameter of fertility among foreign women immigrated to Denmark. Fertility is the average
http://www.lilliput-information.com/stati/hyp.html

5. information of Denmark, engsamm.html
The fertility is the number of children … that lead to the small fertility-number 1.2-1.4 … of foreigners, and later on the fertility has most likely fallen further. International
http://www.lilliput-information.com/engsamm.html

6. lilliput-information, Information om Danmark, fremmede i Danmark, fertt.html
com/italy/life_and_customs/persistent_drop_in_ fertility_res.htm : “. In no … 1.67 if the fertility of women born abroad … in order of Total Fertility Rate (children): Rank Country
http://www.lilliput-information.com/fertt.html

7. lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects…
estimating the demografic parameter of fertility among foreign women … calculated by U.N. Fertility is the average number … assume the idea that fertility among the foreigners adjust
http://www.lilliput-information.com/fert.html

8. lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects…
pageid=1089,47613132&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&mo=containsall&ms=fertility&saa=&p_action=SUBMIT &l=dk&co=equal&ci=,&po=equalπ=,) , estimeret til 1,28 hos CIA for 2005 (http://
http://www.lilliput-information.com/euarb.html

9. lilliput-information, Information om Danmark, fremmede i Danmark, forch.html
Total fertility in Denmark (a very small country of 5,447,084 inhabitants all in all) is officially reported to be 1.75 child per women. When the most foreign immigrants give
http://www.lilliput-information.com/forch.html

10. lilliput-information, knowledge of and solutions to problems within the subjects…
international competition, the low western fertility, therefore the ageing of the populations, the weight of the welfare system compared with GNP, and the still increasing state-
http://www.lilliput-information.com/engvelg.html

Advertisements

1 Comment »

  1. Predictability and responsibility, ruthless optimism and blind ……

    Let us add some own reflections about this ‘baby boom’ phenomenon, by some naivists seen as a welcome and beneficial rise in the ‘European fertility’, by others as the ominous first stage of an accelerating replacement of the British ……

    Trackback by MePregnant — April 16, 2009 @ 10:00 pm


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Blog at WordPress.com.

%d bloggers like this: