May 13, 2009

Correction of the German population balance


Correction of the German population balance

In the Federal Republic of Germany Population, ultimo year 2007: 82,217,800

Of these, following the official number of immigrants: 7,257,000 (8.83%)

Number of naturalizations for the period 1980-2007 is officially: 3,814,730 (4.64%)


Σ N (x) * (1 + r) ^ x, where N (x) is the number of naturalizations in each year, r is the average net growth rate by birth a year of the naturalized with effect from the year of naturalization, x varies 0 to 27

x = 0

The expected number of children after the naturalization (1980-2007): 2,076,058 (2.53%)

Results: 13,147,788 are migrants or descent from migrants (16%) ,

and 69,070,012 Germans in Germany.

This leads to approximately 20% of the birthgiving women are immigrants, and the following equilibrium applies:

0.20 * 3.5 + 0.80 * x = 1.37, where x is

Fertilty of the German women, on average 0.85 children,

if the fertility of migrants in the average is 3.5 children and the general fertility in Germany was 1.37 on average in 2007.

Assume migration continues at the 2007-level with 43.912 plus 156.942 naturalization a year and the growth-rate by foreign births of 4% a year: PV=13,147,788   PMT=200,854   i=4%   n=30:  FV=51,445,585

Projection of the number immigrants and their descendants, year 2037: 51,445,585

With German fertility at 0.85 you face a negative rate of -0.97% a year: 69,070,012*(1-0.0097)^30 = 51,557,625

Projection of the Germans, year 2037: 51,557,625

The biggest group, muslims then take over 13 years later. Compare with the video:




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