Correction of the German population balance
In the Federal Republic of Germany Population, ultimo year 2007: 82,217,800
Of these, following the official number of immigrants: 7,257,000 (8.83%)
Number of naturalizations for the period 1980-2007 is officially: 3,814,730 (4.64%)
27
Σ N (x) * (1 + r) ^ x, where N (x) is the number of naturalizations in each year, r is the average net growth rate by birth a year of the naturalized with effect from the year of naturalization, x varies 0 to 27
x = 0
The expected number of children after the naturalization (1980-2007): 2,076,058 (2.53%)
Results: 13,147,788 are migrants or descent from migrants (16%) ,
and 69,070,012 Germans in Germany.
This leads to approximately 20% of the birthgiving women are immigrants, and the following equilibrium applies:
0.20 * 3.5 + 0.80 * x = 1.37, where x is
Fertilty of the German women, on average 0.85 children,
if the fertility of migrants in the average is 3.5 children and the general fertility in Germany was 1.37 on average in 2007.
Assume migration continues at the 2007-level with 43.912 plus 156.942 naturalization a year and the growth-rate by foreign births of 4% a year: PV=13,147,788 PMT=200,854 i=4% n=30: FV=51,445,585
Projection of the number immigrants and their descendants, year 2037: 51,445,585
With German fertility at 0.85 you face a negative rate of -0.97% a year: 69,070,012*(1-0.0097)^30 = 51,557,625
Projection of the Germans, year 2037: 51,557,625
The biggest group, muslims then take over 13 years later. Compare with the video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-3X5hIFXYU
Sonia
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