Dissidentpress

November 26, 2010

Index-Population-Accounts-Corrections Are Offered Here

Filed under: Demographics, Fertility, perspectives, Research, Statistics — Tags: , , — jensn @ 10:08 am

National Population Accounts: http://www.lilliput-information.com/index-population-account-corrections.pdf

In Britain, Austria and Denmark you do not depict the reality from the official based information when you make calculations/estimations involving ethnic descendants for research on diseases or other characters known to or expected to be descendence-related.

Officially:
Naturalized and children of naturalized are counted as citizens of the nation they or their children immigrated to, and children of foreign citizens are in worst cases also counted as citizens of Britain, of Austria or of Denmark not as foreign citizens like their parents.

Our correction:
To correct this account according to the ethnic descendence we use the yearly (1 January) number of immigrants of foreign descendence, and corresponding to this number we add there to their expected number of births nation/area by nation/area of descendence and subtract the number of deaths in the country they immigrated to. And naturalized the same. The annuity-method then used in order to retro-estimate and project a more correct number of citizens with foreign descendence.
This means that the population-account is being corrected for the period 1979-2010 in a retro-estimation.
The difference in Denmark amount to 14 p.c. in 2010 totally for the 241 descendences in Denmark based on the birthsrates of descendence recommended by UN. And a even more realistick estimation result in a difference of 26 p.c. And given the official counting-categories will remained unchanged this difference will increase substantially in the years to come.
The variables in use are the official number of citizens of foreign descendence 1 January and the official number of naturalized each year. The parameters are the birth rates (in the case of 14 p.e. difference)  recommended by UN and the total mortality rate in Denmark.
Our correction and the projections for the future do not yet include distribution on sex and ages till now.

J. E. Vig,  M. Sc. (Economics), Denmark

May 8, 2009

The United Kingdom will have 17.7 mio more within the next 25 years

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The United Kingdom

According to: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/population/migration/international-migration/index.html

tim19912007graph1_tcm119-23658

UK for the period 2004 to 2007.
The size of the UK born population has remained constant throughout the
four year period at around 54 million. In contrast, the non-UK population
has increased from an estimated 5.2 million in 2004 to 6.3 million in
2007, an increase of 21 per cent. In 2004, an estimated 8.9 per cent of
the total population was non-UK born; by 2007 this had increased to

10.6 per cent.

UK for the period 2004 to 2007

UK for the period 2004 to 2007
The size of the UK born population has remained constant throughout the four year period at around 54 million. In contrast, the non-UK population has increased from an estimated 5.2 million in 2004 to 6.3 million in 2007, an increase of 21 per cent. In 2004, an estimated 8.9 per cent of the total population was non-UK born; by 2007 this had increased to 10.6 per cent. Irish and immigrants from the old EU-countries amounted to 1.252 in 2007. This means 5.090 million foreigners. In addition comes the UK born as children and grandchildren of naturalized foreign parents.
Compared with Danish relations the total number of foreigners in UK is 11-12 millions of the entire population of about 61 millioner – i.e. 18-20 percent.

Remember Austria, An Excerpt: “…Max Planck Intitute for Demographic Research reports officially that Austria had 16.6% non-Austrians in the country ultimo 2004. Those non-Austrians do not include naturalized who are born by immigrants in Austria and not grandchildren of immigrants either. This implies that 16.6% has to be even higher, if we intend to count the percentage of inhabitants of foreign origine in Austria…”

18-20 percent in UK also fit the check of births-shares and fertilities:

3.5*x + 1.2*(1-x) =1.87, implies x, the share of ethnic foreign births = 29 percent

Compare with what the media find is fit for you to know

Daily Express – 8.6. 2007: 1,5 million muslims’ ??

Another source: The Muslim population in Britain has grown by more than 500,000 to 2.4 million in just four years, according to official research collated forThe Times. The population multiplied 10 times faster than the rest of society, the research by the Office for National Statistics reveals. In the same period the number of Christians in the country fell by more than 2 million (??).

According to: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/population/population-change/population-projections/index.html

graph1_tcm119-29018

Source: National population projections and much more details

With a general or total fertility of 1.87 children per woman (and not 2.1) one would expect a decrease of the population by almost 11% for the projected period of 25 years. But the official expectation points at an increase of 18% instead. All in all a difference of about 29% of the population. This implies that 17.7 mill. more is expected to immigrate to The United Kingdom (at 61 mio. in 2007) within the next 25 years if fertility is assume constant.

The patterns are the same as here, ‘but painted with an eleven times smaller brush’. More foreign immigrants contribute tremendously to the rise in fertility.

The British do not.

But total fertility is not expected to be constant. Total fertility is the weighed average of ethnic fertilities with populations shares as weights .

graph1_tcm119-23935

Source: Office for National Statistics and more details

This means births or immigration implying the same results, and patterns of culture included fertility are much like here.

If you want to read a piece by piece distribution of ethnicity (the closest you get) it is partly possible here (take a very big breath before you click on the link and go to page 34)

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_population/Population_trends_135.pdf (page 34)

Sonia

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